9 These AI-specific challenges, however, may magnify the coordination and commitment challenges that frequently plague military operations conducted by multinational alliances and coalitions.ĭrawing from theories of alliance politics and analysis of emerging AI technologies, I map out two areas where AI could hamper multinational military operations. 8 To be sure, decision-makers have expressed concerns about the reliability of AI technologies and the ethical implications of delegating military operations to computers. 5 Meanwhile, China has pledged to develop a $150 billion AI sector by 2030, 6 and Russian President Vladimir Putin famously asserted, “whoever becomes the leader in will become the ruler of the world.” 7 AI development promises to bring enhanced accuracy and efficiency to complex and dangerous tasks, but policymakers and scholars have yet to fully explore how these benefits compare with potential risks - particularly in the context of multinational military operations. Department of Defense unveiled its AI strategy. States are racing to achieve superiority in the AI domain, and AI research and development is flourishing: In early 2019, the U.S. Germany’s 2019 National AI Strategy advocates for “work with the nations leading in this field … to conduct joint bilateral and/or multilateral R&D activities on the development and use of AI.” 4 While cooperation is important, what challenges might allies and partners encounter as they work together to develop and deploy AI in the military domain? And what steps might states take to overcome these obstacles? President Donald Trump’s executive order on AI directs “enhance international and industry collaboration with foreign partners and allies” to maintain “American leadership in AI.” 2 Similarly, the congressionally chartered National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence warns, “If the United States and its allies do not coordinate early and often on AI-enabled capabilities, the effectiveness of our military coalitions will suffer.” 3 Several of Washington’s allies have echoed these calls for collaboration. Policymakers and experts in the United States and other countries have urged international cooperation on the development and use of AI, but this guidance overlooks important questions about the challenges of AI collaboration in the security domain. AI-enabled technologies - like autonomous drone swarms and algorithms that quickly sift through massive amounts of information - can increase the speed and efficiency of warfare, but they may also exacerbate the coordination and decision-making challenges frequently associated with multinational military operations carried out by allies and security partners. 1 Is this type of cooperation a harbinger of things to come? The burgeoning military use of AI - technology that carries out tasks that normally require human intelligence - has the potential to alter how states carry out military operations. In June 2019, the United States announced a new artificial intelligence (AI) partnership with Singapore that calls for collaboration on the development and use of AI technologies in the national security domain.
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